HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2001
 
...EYE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE MICHELLE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH 
COAST OF CUBA...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA...
INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  THIS INCLUDES GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS...THE
BERRY ISLANDS...  BIMINI...ANDROS...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...CAT
ISLAND...EXUMAS...SAN SALVADOR...RUM CAY AND LONG ISLAND.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BUT
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED TONIGHT.
 
MICHELLE IS CROSSING THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA AND AT 4 PM
EST...2100Z...THE EYE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST IN THE ZAPATA PENINSULA OR ABOUT 60 
MILES...95 KM...SOUTH OF VARADERO CUBA.

MICHELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THE 
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CUBA TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE 
FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CAYO 
LARGO...AN ISLAND SOUTH OF CUBA HAS EXPERIENCED THE EYE OF THE 
HURRICANE AND REPORTED CALM WINDS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 951 
MB...28.08 INCHES.  HAVANA RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS TO 55 MPH...90 
KM/HR. SOBRERO KEY....IN THE FLORIDA KEYS..REPORTED GUSTS TO 52 
MPH...83 KM/HR.   
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES...250 TO 500
MILLIMETERS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF MICHELLE AS IT
CROSSES CUBA.  HEAVY SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE 
SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ARE 
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

A STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET...OR 6 METERS...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND
TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE EYE IS MAKING LANDFALL.  LARGE BATTERING
WAVES DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. 

A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH 
BATTERING WAVES IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE 
FLORIDA KEYS. 
 
REPEATING THE 4 PM EST POSITION...22.3 N... 81.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM EST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
NNNN