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HURRICANE MICHELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT NOV 03 2001

...MICHELLE STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
 
A HURRUCANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
ALL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
MICHELLE.  WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE UPGRADED AND EXTENDED
NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
 
AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHELLE WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES 
...305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
 
MICHELLE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR 
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES MICHELLE A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON 
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  937 MB...27.67 INCHES.
  
OUTER RAINBANDS ARE LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE CAYMAN 
ISLANDS...JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS 
OF 10-20 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF MICHELLE.
 
REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...19.2 N... 84.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  2 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM EST.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
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