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HURRICANE MICHELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT NOV 03 2001

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 MICHELLE WOBBLES WESTWARD WHILE CONTINUING
TO STRENGTHEN...
 
AT 6 AM EST...1100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA IS UPGRADING THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES FROM PINAR
DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
AT 4 AM EST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF WESTWARD
TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
ALL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHELLE.  WATCHES
AND WARNING MAY BE UPGRADED AND EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
 
AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHELLE WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 200 
MILES...325 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
 
MICHELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  5 MPH...7 KM/HR.
A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR.  THIS
MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF MICHELLE NEAR WESTERN CUBA LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES MICHELLE A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MICHELLE
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER IS  940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE 
CAYMAN ISLANDS.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-20 INCHES...WITH 
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF MICHELLE.

REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...19.0 N... 84.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 940 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM EST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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