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TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU NOV 01 2001

...MICHELLE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT
235 MILES...375 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

MICHELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH ...  7 KM/HR...AND A
SLOW NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...  95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONDITIONS FAVOR CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING...AND MICHELLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 
997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RAINS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.  
HOWEVER THE CIRCULATION OF MICHELLE IS DRAWING MOIST AIR FROM THE 
PACIFIC...WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND POSSIBLY 
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY 
OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.

REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...16.6 N... 83.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM EST.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
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