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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED OCT 31 2001

...DANGEROUS FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE  83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES...25 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 
PUERTO CABEZAS ON THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NICARAGUA.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP 
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION OVER LAND TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...250 TO 400
MILLIMETERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...14.0 N... 83.6 W.  MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM EST.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
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