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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2001

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT 
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
83.5 WEST OR ON THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ABOUT 40 MILES...60
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY.  A DRIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER 
EASTERN NICARAGUA IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 
1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN EASTERN 
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 
10 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...AND THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...13.0 N... 83.5 W.  MOVEMENT
STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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