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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT OCT 06 2001
 
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... 

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
51.1 WEST OR ABOUT 740 MILES...1200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM 
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 
THIS SYSTEM.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.2 N... 51.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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