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HURRICANE IRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2001

...SMALL BUT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IRIS HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN 
BELIZE...

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS FROM THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA
EASTWARD TO LIMON.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN FROM FELIPE CARRILLO PUERTO SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
BELIZE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEXICAN EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE
BORDER.  THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE MEXICAN COAST MAY BE 
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
 
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...265
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

IRIS IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33 KM/HR.  A
GENERAL WEST OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST MOTION IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ON THE PROJECTED TRACK...THE CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IRIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
 
IRIS IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL HURRICANE...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER. 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  950 MB...28.05 INCHES. 
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13-18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE CROSSES THE COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY ALONG 
THE PATH OF IRIS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.9 N... 85.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 21 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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