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HURRICANE IRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2001

...IRIS MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA...NOAA PLANE SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE 
HURRICANE SOON...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CABO 
CATOCHE SOUTHWARD.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A 
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BELIZE FROM FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...330
KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS
PATH...IRIS WILL BE HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR  85 MPH...140 KM/HR...IN A SMALL 
ARE JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES 
SUGGEST THAT IRIS MAY BE STRENGTHENING AND A NOAA PLANE WILL CHECK 
THE INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT JAMAICA TODAY.  

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA.  THESE RAINS COULD 
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 78.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 19 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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