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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM AST FRI OCT 05 2001
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE...AIR 
FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING AND MAY FIND A TROPICAL STORM...  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO BEATA. 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO BEATA ALONG 
THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF 
HAITI...ANSE D HAINAULT.
 
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  65.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250 
MILES...400 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PONCE PUERTO RICO.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH
...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. PRELIMINARY 
REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE AREA 
SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY HAVE REACHED TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH. IF THIS IS CONFIRMED...A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED 
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

SQUALLS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH  
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SQUALLS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TROPICAL 
STORM FORCE MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO TODAY AS 
RAIN BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...15.2 N... 65.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA
 
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