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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2001

....CHANTAL STILL TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF
MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN.  ALSO
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.  A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE SOUTH OF BELIZE
CITY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CHANTAL IS NEAR 
HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...  LONGITUDE
80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND
CAYMAN.

CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND A 
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS 
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES ...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 
MB...29.65 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF CHANTAL. 

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...15.5 N...  80.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...  70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
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