ZCZC MIASPFAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST THU NOV 01 2001
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF MICHELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM EST SUN NOV 4 2001
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
19.0N 84.9W 56 1 X X 57 MMMD 210N 897W X 2 5 5 12
19.8N 85.0W 37 1 X X 38 MARATHON FL X X 1 7 8
20.5N 85.0W 24 2 1 1 28 MIAMI FL X X X 5 5
MKJS 185N 779W X X X 2 2 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 3 3
MWCG 193N 814W 4 2 2 4 12 FT PIERCE FL X X X 3 3
MUCM 214N 779W X X X 3 3 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2
MUCF 221N 805W X X 3 6 9 KEY WEST FL X X 3 7 10
MUSN 216N 826W 3 6 4 4 17 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 6 7
MUHA 230N 824W X 3 5 6 14 FT MYERS FL X X X 6 6
MUAN 219N 850W 6 11 3 2 22 VENICE FL X X X 5 5
MMCZ 205N 869W 11 8 2 2 23 TAMPA FL X X X 4 4
MZBZ 175N 883W 1 4 2 4 11 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2
MGPB 157N 886W X X 1 3 4 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2
MHNJ 165N 859W 23 1 X X 24 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2
MNPC 141N 834W X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X X 3 3
MYAK 241N 776W X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X X X 3 3
MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W X X X 3 3
MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W X X X 2 2
MMFR 185N 926W X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7AM FRI TO 7PM FRI
C FROM 7PM FRI TO 7AM SAT
D FROM 7AM SAT TO 7AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN
Problems?
![[NCEP Logo]](/graphics/ncep.gif){kind=small}