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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2001
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT WED AUG 22 2001
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
16.7N 82.4W 46 X X X 46 MGPB 157N 886W X 1 5 3 9
17.6N 84.4W 11 20 X X 31 MHNJ 165N 859W 1 18 2 1 22
18.9N 86.3W X 15 10 1 26 MNPC 141N 834W 3 2 X X 5
MWCG 193N 814W 11 6 X X 17 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 6 6
MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 1 2 MMMD 210N 897W X X 5 13 18
MUSN 216N 826W X 4 5 2 11 KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2
MUHA 230N 824W X X 3 2 5 GULF 28N 89W X X X 4 4
MUAN 219N 850W X 2 12 4 18 GULF 28N 91W X X X 3 3
MMCZ 205N 869W X 2 18 3 23 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2
MZBZ 175N 883W X 2 12 3 17
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE
D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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