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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU AUG 16 2001
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN AUG 19 2001
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
13.6N 60.0W 49 1 1 X 51 TISX 177N 648W X 3 16 1 20
14.3N 63.0W 1 32 1 X 34 TIST 183N 650W X 1 14 2 17
15.0N 66.0W X 4 21 1 26 TJPS 180N 666W X X 13 7 20
SKPG 125N 717W X X X 5 5 MDSD 185N 697W X X 1 18 19
TNCC 122N 690W X X 2 6 8 MDCB 176N 714W X X X 19 19
SVMG 110N 640W X 3 2 1 6 MTPP 186N 724W X X X 16 16
TTPP 106N 614W 1 2 X X 3 MTCA 183N 738W X X X 13 13
TTPT 112N 608W 4 4 X X 8 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 3 3
TGPY 120N 618W 5 13 1 X 19 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 7 7
TBPB 131N 595W 49 1 X X 50 TJSJ 184N 661W X X 12 6 18
TVSV 131N 612W 25 12 X X 37 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 14 14
TLPL 138N 610W 34 10 X X 44 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 7 7
TFFF 146N 610W 30 13 X 1 44 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 3 3
TDPR 153N 614W 13 24 X X 37 ST CROIX VI X 3 16 1 20
TFFR 163N 615W 3 24 X 1 28 ST THOMAS VI X 1 14 2 17
TAPA 171N 618W X 18 2 X 20 SAN JUAN PR X X 12 6 18
TKPK 173N 627W X 15 6 X 21 PONCE PR X X 13 7 20
TNCM 181N 631W X 6 9 X 15
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
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