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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1501
0300Z TUE OCT 16 2001
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 116.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  50SE  50SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 116.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 115.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.0N 117.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N 118.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 116.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.3N 121.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 24.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH/COBB
 
 
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