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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1501
1500Z SUN OCT 14 2001
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 114.4W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  75 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 316 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 114.4W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 114.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.5N 115.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.1N 116.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.7N 117.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 114.4W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 16.3N 118.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
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