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TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP0501
2100Z SAT JUL 21 2001
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO.  THIS WATCH COULD BE CHANGED
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING OR EVEN A HURRICANE WARNING LATER TODAY
OR EARYLY SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT MOVEMENT OF DALILA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  97.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  97.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  97.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.2N  98.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.1N 100.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.7N 102.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N  97.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.2N 103.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 17.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
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