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TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP0401
2100Z SAT JUL 21 2001
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 120.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 100SE 100SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 125SE 125SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 120.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 120.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.2N 121.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 120.8W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 18.9N 124.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
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