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HURRICANE MICHELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1501
2100Z SAT NOV 03 2001
CORRECTION TO WIND RADII AT 2100Z

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
ALL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MICHELLE.  WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE UPGRADED AND EXTENDED
NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  84.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  933 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT.......125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 200SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  84.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  84.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.2N  84.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.7N  83.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.1N  81.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N  84.1W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.2N  79.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 29.0N  71.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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