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HURRICANE MICHELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1501
1500Z SAT NOV 03 2001
 
A HURRUCANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
ALL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
MICHELLE.  WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE UPGRADED AND EXTENDED 
NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  84.2W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  937 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT.......125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 175SE 125SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  84.2W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  84.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.1N  84.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.3N  83.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.4N  82.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N  84.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.3N  80.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 125SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 125SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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