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HURRICANE MICHELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1501
0900Z SAT NOV 03 2001
 
AT 6 AM EST...1100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA IS UPGRADING THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES FROM PINAR
DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
AT 4 AM EST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF WESTWARD
TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
ALL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHELLE.  WATCHES
AND WARNING MAY BE UPGRADED AND EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  84.4W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  940 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......125NE 125SE  90SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 175SE 125SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  84.4W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  84.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.8N  84.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.9N  84.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N  83.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N  84.4W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.3N  81.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 26.5N  74.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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