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HURRICANE MICHELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1501
0300Z SAT NOV 03 2001
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD
TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WARNING 
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY SATURDAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHELLE. WATCHES AND WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED EARLY SATURDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  84.0W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......125NE 125SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 175SE 125SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  84.0W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  84.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.7N  84.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N  84.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.0N  83.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  84.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.0N  82.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 26.0N  75.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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