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TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1501
0900Z FRI NOV 02 2001
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES IN
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...HAVANA CITY...MATANZAS...
AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHELLE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 83.9W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 60SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 83.9W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 83.9W
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.3N 84.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.2N 84.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.2N 84.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 83.9W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 21.3N 83.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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