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TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1501
0300Z FRI NOV 02 2001
...CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 60 KT DOWN TO 55 KT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES IN
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...HAVANA CITY...MATANZAS...
AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHELLE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 83.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 60SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 83.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 83.9W
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.2N 84.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 84.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 84.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 83.9W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 21.1N 84.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
FORECASTER STEWART
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