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TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1501
1500Z THU NOV 01 2001
 
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHELLE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  83.9W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  75SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE  60SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  83.9W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  83.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.0N  84.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N  84.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.8N  85.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  83.9W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 20.5N  85.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 22.0N  84.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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