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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1501
0900Z WED OCT 31 2001
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  83.6W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  83.6W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  83.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.7N  84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.4N  84.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.3N  84.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N  83.6W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 17.4N  84.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 20.0N  85.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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