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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1501
2100Z TUE OCT 30 2001
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  83.4W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  83.4W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  83.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.7N  83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.7N  83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.9N  84.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N  83.4W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 17.2N  84.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 19.0N  84.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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