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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1501
1500Z TUE OCT 30 2001
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  84.0W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  84.0W AT 30/1500Z...INLAND
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  84.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.7N  84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.9N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.9N  85.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N  84.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 18.0N  85.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 20.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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