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HURRICANE IRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1101
1500Z SUN OCT 07 2001
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CABO CATOCHE
SOUTHWARD.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE LATER
TODAY.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR CUBA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  77.9W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  75SE  25SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  50SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  77.9W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  77.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.8N  80.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  25SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N  83.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N  86.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  77.9W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 18.5N  89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 19.0N  92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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