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HURRICANE IRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1101
0900Z SUN OCT 07 2001
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND GUANTANAMO..AND FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN CUBAN PROVINCES
OF LAS TUNAS AND CAMAGUEY.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  76.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  75SE  25SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 100SE  50SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  76.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  75.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.7N  78.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  25SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.3N  80.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.5N  83.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N  76.1W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 18.5N  86.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 18.5N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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