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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0401
1500Z SAT AUG 18 2001
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR JAMAICA...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  73.9W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  21 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......125NE  75SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 100SE  25SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  73.9W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  72.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.0N  77.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...125NE  75SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N  80.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  35SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE  75SE  75SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N  82.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE  75SE  25SW 125NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N  73.9W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N  85.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N  88.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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