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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0401
0300Z THU AUG 16 2001
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST.
LUCIA.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N  50.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  75 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  23 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N  50.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  48.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.0N  53.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.5N  57.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.0N  60.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N  50.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 14.5N  63.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 16.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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