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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT NOV 03 2001
 
OCTAVE CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT
BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB.
THUS...OCTAVE IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.  OCTAVE CONTINUES
MOVING OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
THROUGH A VERY HOSTILE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.  THUS...THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES AND BECOMES A REMNANT
LOW IN 12-24 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/8.  OCTAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/1500Z 18.8N 132.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     04/0000Z 19.2N 133.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     04/1200Z 19.7N 135.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW

 
 
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