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TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI NOV 02 2001
 
OCTAVE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 
WINDS.  THIS IS SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER 
IS ABOUT 50 PERCENT EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65...65 AND 55 KNOTS FROM 
TAFB...SAB...AND AFGWC.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 14Z SHOWED NO WIND 
SPEEDS ABOVE 40 KNOTS.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR AND 
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS A CONSERVATIVE 
COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE AT 60 KNOTS.  WITH CONTINUED SHEAR AND 
COOLER SSTS AHEAD...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS DISSIPATION IN 48 
HOURS OR SO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/06.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO
IS FOR THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE STEERED BY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUE A SLOW MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN
NEXT 72 HOURS.  THIS IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE 
BAM-SHALLOW...GFDL...NOGAPS AND AVIATION MODELS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/2100Z 18.3N 129.7W    60 KTS
12HR VT     03/0600Z 19.0N 130.2W    50 KTS
24HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 131.1W    40 KTS
36HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 132.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     04/1800Z 20.5N 134.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     05/1800Z 20.5N 136.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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