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HURRICANE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI NOV 02 2001

OCTAVE IS FEELING THE AFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR THIS
MORNING...AS MULTISPECTRAL NIGHT-TIME IMAGERY SUGGESTING THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND
65 KT FROM AFWA.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 75 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

OCTAVE IS MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND STRONGER
SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...
AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE 
NOTED THAT THE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES OCTAVE IN 60 HR...SO IT COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/8.  WHILE NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD...THE FACT THAT OCTAVE
IS SHEARING SIMPLIFIES THE TRACK FORECAST TO A GREAT EXTENT.  THE
CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME A SLOW WESTWARD
MOTION AS THE VORTEX WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOME
PREDOMINANT.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAMM EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND BAMS
LATE IN THE FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 17.5N 128.9W    75 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N 129.1W    65 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.5N 129.3W    55 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.2N 129.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 20.9N 129.7W    35 KTS
72HR VT     05/0600Z 21.5N 130.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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