[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU NOV 01 2001

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...55 KNOTS FROM SAB 
WASHINGTON AND 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB MIAMI...SO THE INTENSITY IS KEPT 
AT 50 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY WELL 
ORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTH 
AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING A BIT ELONGATED TOWARD THE 
NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT CALLS FOR LITTLE 
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY INCREASE...AND SSTS SHOULD BE COOLING.  THE OFFICIAL WIND 
SPEED FORECAST GOES WITH THIS IDEA...BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN THE STORM 
AS FAST AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 305/10.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE WEAKENING 
STORM SHOULD BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS 
ONE...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM LAYER BAM TRACK. 

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0900Z 15.1N 128.4W    50 KTS
12HR VT     01/1800Z 15.9N 128.9W    55 KTS
24HR VT     02/0600Z 17.0N 129.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     02/1800Z 17.7N 129.7W    55 KTS
48HR VT     03/0600Z 18.5N 129.8W    50 KTS
72HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 130.0W    35 KTS
 
NNNN


Problems?