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TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED OCT 31 2001
 
BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND OCTAVE IS BEGINNING 
TO LOOK MORE LIKE A HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL DEEP 
CONVECTION IS STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK AND DISORGANIZED.  THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE IMPRESSIVE 
BANDING FEATURES AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST 
OF OCTAVE...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH AND 
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE ONLY NHC MODEL THAT RECURVES THE 
STORM IS THE LBAR MODEL.  THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKE 
THE STORM NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD.  THE EXCEPTION IS THE UKMET 
MODEL...WHICH TAKES OCTAVE WESTWARD.  THIS SCENARIO WAS DISCOUNTED 
SINCE THE UKMET KEEPS THE CYCLONE VERY WEAK AND...AS A RESULT... 
DRIVES IT WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL 
EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
ALMOST ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE GFDL 
AND AVN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
 
OCTAVE POSSESSES GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...WHICH CONTINUES TO 
IMPROVE.  GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES AND DECREASING 
SHEAR...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST 24 TO PERHAPS 36 HOURS 
SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER.  BY 36 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR 
BEGINS TO INCREASE AND THIS...COMBINED WITH COOLER SSTS...SHOULD 
BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY 
MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY...WHICH BRINGS OCTAVE TO NEAR HURRICANE 
STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0300Z 14.6N 127.4W    50 KTS
12HR VT     01/1200Z 15.5N 128.1W    55 KTS
24HR VT     02/0000Z 16.7N 128.7W    60 KTS
36HR VT     02/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     03/0000Z 19.1N 129.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N 129.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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