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TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED OCT 31 2001

OCTAVE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS
OF -80C NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT...SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY
FOR THIS PACKAGE.  IT IS LIKELY THAT THE FIRST DAYLIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGES WILL REVEAL A STRONGER SYSTEM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF OCTAVE...WITH SIGNS OF A BREAK
OR WEAKNESS NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  SEVERAL GUIDANCE MODELS...
INCLUDING THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS...THE GFDL...THE AVN...AND THE
UKMET...TURN OCTAVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS.  OTHERS...LIKE THE
NOGAPS AND THE NHC91...FORECAST A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE NORTHWARD TURN SCENARIO IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.
 
OCTAVE HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE...AND
THAT COMBINED WITH THE COLD CLOUD TOPS INDICATES THAT CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...A
COMBINATION OF COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO WEAKEN.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/1500Z 13.4N 125.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 14.2N 126.9W    45 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 15.6N 127.9W    55 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 16.9N 128.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     02/1200Z 18.5N 128.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     03/1200Z 20.5N 128.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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