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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM PST TUE OCT 30 2001
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS 
EVENING AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E.
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 
HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF 
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT 
FROM SAB. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE WEST BUT RESTRICTED TO THE EAST DUE 
TO EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/14.  TD-17E IS EXPECTED TO TRACK 
IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN 
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BY 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER 
THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. RECURVATURE TO THE 
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING 
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE 
MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS...EXCEPT SLOWER LIKE THE AVN MODEL 
SOLUTION.

THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE 
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS 
THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS OR COL REGION IN THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH ABOUT 48 
HOURS...AFTER WHICH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS 
EXPECTED TO KICK IN.  WATER TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM 
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH AND THIS COULD OCCUR BY 
AROUND 48 HOURS. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL ONLY STRENGTHENS THE 
CYCLONE TO 49 KT IN 36 HOURS...BUT THIS OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE LBAR 
MODEL WHICH MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK 
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...RIGHT INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND 30 TO 
40 KT OF SHEAR...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0300Z 12.5N 123.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     31/1200Z 13.1N 125.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 14.4N 126.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     01/1200Z 15.8N 127.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     02/0000Z 17.3N 127.3W    55 KTS
72HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N 125.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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