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TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2001

STRONG SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON NARDA...AND REMOVED ESSENTIALLY 
ALL DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A DISTINCT SWIRL OF 
LOW CLOUDS WITH ESTIMATED MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.  
INTERMITTENT FLARE-UPS OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM 
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.  OTHERWISE...NARDA CAN BE CONSIDERED AS A 
DISSIPATING REMNANT LOW.  ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE DISCONTINUED 
LATER TODAY. 

THE WESTWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED TO 14 KNOTS...OR MORE...AS NARDA 
IS BEING STEERED BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWINDS.  A GENERAL 
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS 140W AND ENTER 
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER...CPHC...AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY 
LATER TODAY.  THEREFORE THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED BY 
THE CPHC.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 16.4N 139.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.7N 141.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     24/1200Z 17.1N 143.3W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N 145.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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