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TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2001
 
NARDA IS A DEEPLY-FLAWED TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH ITS CENTER EMERGING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS
STILL YIELD 65 KT...BUT THE T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 3.0...45 KT.
DVORAK CONSTRAINTS OFTEN KEEP CI NUMBERS UP TOO LONG IN WEAKENING
SYSTEMS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED DOWN TO 60 KT.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR CURRENTLY
AFFECTING NARDA WILL BE INCREASING...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
FORECAST ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
THE TRACK IS 285/10...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION.
MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER NARDA WILL BE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION AND VERTICAL CONTINUITY TO
RESPOND TO THAT FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  ONLY THE AVN...WHICH SHOWS A WESTWARD TRACK FOR 36 HOURS
AND THEN DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM...IS FURTHER SOUTH.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 16.3N 135.7W    60 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 16.7N 137.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 17.4N 140.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 18.0N 142.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 18.5N 145.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     26/0000Z 19.0N 150.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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