ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2001
THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING CONTINUES...BUT THE CENTER IS NOT YET
EXPOSED FROM THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IT MAY
BECOME SO AT ANY TIME. THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS...WHICH
IS A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL
OUTPUT...THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE...AND PROBABLY INCREASE
WITH TIME. THEREFORE NARDA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. IN
FACT...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES AN
EVEN FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN IS SHOWN HERE.
THE TRACK CONTINUES ALONG ABOUT 295/11. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 16.2N 135.0W 65 KTS
12HR VT 23/0600Z 16.8N 136.6W 60 KTS
24HR VT 23/1800Z 17.5N 139.0W 55 KTS
36HR VT 24/0600Z 18.3N 141.5W 45 KTS
48HR VT 24/1800Z 19.0N 144.0W 35 KTS
72HR VT 25/1800Z 20.0N 147.0W 25 KTS
NNNN
Problems?