ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2001
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT NARDA IS BEING SHEARED BY UPPER-
LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS THE CIRRUS CANOPY OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS A RATHER SHARP EDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. IT
APPEARS THAT THE HURRICANES MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBERS...WHICH MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A
WHILE AFTER THE INITIAL SIGNS OF WEAKENING ARE EVIDENT...AND THE
LATEST DATA T NUMBERS. WITH NARDA LIKELY TO CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH
AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG...AND INCREASING...VERTICAL SHEAR...
WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO DEPRESSION STATUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD... HOWEVER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT NARDA MAY DISSIPATE BY THAT
TIME.
SINCE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL MOTION AND
FORECAST TRACK HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONES. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF NARDA
SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
LATEST GFDL RUN.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/1500Z 15.7N 134.0W 70 KTS
12HR VT 23/0000Z 16.4N 135.6W 65 KTS
24HR VT 23/1200Z 17.0N 137.9W 60 KTS
36HR VT 24/0000Z 17.5N 140.0W 50 KTS
48HR VT 24/1200Z 18.0N 142.0W 40 KTS
72HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 145.5W 30 KTS
NNNN
Problems?