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TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN OCT 21 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12.  THE AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE
GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.
 
A COLD CDO FEATURE PERSISTS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 45 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW MODEST
STRENGTHENING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO AFTER WHICH UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE STORM.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 12.6N 129.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 13.5N 130.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 15.2N 135.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     23/0600Z 16.0N 137.6W    50 KTS
72HR VT     24/0600Z 17.6N 142.3W    35 KTS
 
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