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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2001
 
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE DOWN AND ARE NOW 35 AND 45 
KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.  
MANUEL IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND SSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 26C.  THE 
AVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE 
INCREASING SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  ADD IN THE 
CONTRIBUTION FROM COOLER WATERS...AND MANUEL SHOULD BE ON THE FAST 
TRACK TO DISSIPATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10...TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK 
AGAIN.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS ERODING... 
AND MANUEL STILL HAS ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE RESPONDING.  
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...MANUEL SHOULD 
BE PROGRESSIVELY STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AND SO PROBABLY WILL 
NOT TURN MUCH MORE TO THE RIGHT...AND IF SO ONLY BRIEFLY.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 
DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY RECENT TRACK...AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET 
AND THE AVN SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0900Z 20.2N 121.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     17/1800Z 21.2N 122.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     18/0600Z 22.3N 123.8W    30 KTS
36HR VT     18/1800Z 23.2N 125.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     19/0600Z 24.0N 126.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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