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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2001
 
MANUEL CONTINUES TO HANG ON THIS EVENING. A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION  
NEAR THE CENTER HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUD TOP 
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM SUGGESTING THIS MAY BE TEMPORARY. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT...
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MANUEL IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER...
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...DECREASING SSTS...AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF 
COOL STABLE AIR TO THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE BY 
24-36 HOURS. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 12 
HOURS THEN STEADILY WEAKENS MANUEL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD 
WITH DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 
SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...IF MANUEL TAKES MORE OF A WESTWARD TRACK AND 
REMAINS OVER WARMER SSTS...WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION COULD BE 
DELAYED. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE WEAKENING TREND CURRENTLY FORECAST SHOULD
CAUSE STEERING DOMINATED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM A LARGE RIDGE TO 
THE NORTHWEST OF MANUEL. THIS REASONING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM AND TO THE LEFT
OF ALL THE GUIDANCE.   

FORECASTER BEVEN/COBB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0300Z 19.5N 120.9W    45 KTS
12HR VT     17/1200Z 20.4N 122.4W    45 KTS
24HR VT     18/0000Z 21.6N 124.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     18/1200Z 22.6N 126.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     19/0000Z 23.5N 127.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     20/0000Z 25.0N 130.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW 
 
 
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