HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2001
  
MANUEL MOST LIKELY PEAKED PRIOR TO 12Z BASED ON 16/1009Z AMSU-B AND
16/1424Z SSMI MICROWAVE DATA WHICH SHOWED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE.
SINCE THEN...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND IS LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT BASED
ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING.  VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
FASTER...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS NOW EXERTING MORE OF A WESTERLY INFLUENCE ON 
MANUEL.  MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWEST 
TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE BAM MODELS CONTINUE 
TO INDICATE NORTHWARD MOTION AT 72 HOURS...BUT THIS SCENARIO HAS 
BEEN IGNORED DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE...AND IS 
BETWEEN THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.  HOWEVER...IF A MORE WESTWARD 
TREND CONTINUES...THEN THE FORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED A 
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTENSIFICATION AS MANUEL 
GOES THROUGH THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD TONIGHT. 
AFTERWARDS...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...DECREASING SSTS...AND THE 
EXPECTED ENTRAINMENT OF COOL STABLE AIR TO THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO 
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL 
MAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN DISSIPATES 
THE SYSTEM IN 60 TO 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IF MANUEL TAKES MORE OF A 
WESTWARD TRACK AND REMAINS OVER WARMER SSTS...WEAKENING AND 
DISSIPATION COULD BE DELAYED. 
  
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 18.8N 120.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.7N 121.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 20.8N 123.4W    50 KTS
36HR VT     18/0600Z 21.9N 125.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     18/1800Z 22.7N 126.8W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     19/1800Z 23.5N 129.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN