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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2001
 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...MANUEL HAS GONE THROUGH A TEMPORARY 
BURSTING PHASE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WEAKENING AND NOW REFORMING NEAR 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS MAINTAINED 
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND 
SAB. OUTFLOW IS LESS RESTRICTED AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS 
BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINITY OF 
CENTER POSITIONING FROM INFARED IMAGERY...WE DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE 
MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION.  HOWEVER...LONG TERM 
SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL IS CONTINUING IN A GENERAL 
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP LAYER 
RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WITH A 
MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE 
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...THEREFORE THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN 
INTACT TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP MANUEL ON A 
GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  FORECAST GUIDANCE 
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 36 
HOURS...AND THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARDS.  THE BAM MODELS 
TAKE MANUEL RAPIDLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA...WHICH SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE REMAINING MODELS TAKE MANUEL WEST-NORTHWEST 
TO NORTHWEST...WITH THE AVN BEING THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS. ONCE 
WEAKENING BEGINS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...MANUEL SHOULD BE STEERED MORE 
WESTWARD BY THE DOMINATE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE GFDL 
AND UKMET MODELS.

SINCE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...MANUEL 
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT 
REMAINS OVER MARGINAL SSTS.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL 
SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING.
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL MAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 36 
HOURS...WITH STEADY WEAKENING AFTERWARDS AND DISSIPATION IN 72 
HOURS.

 
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 18.1N 118.3W    45 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 19.9N 121.1W    55 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N 122.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W    40 KTS
72HR VT     19/1200Z 23.5N 125.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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