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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WIND SHEAR CHARTS FROM UW/CIMSS SUGGEST THAT 
MANUEL HAS PASSED ACROSS AN UPPER COL REGION AND THAT THE SHEAR IS 
NOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE CENTER APPARENTLY LOCATED INSIDE 
THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE BLOB.  DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT USING THE SHEAR PATTERN.  
HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT HAD NOTHING OVER 40 KT...EVEN 
RAIN-FLAGGED...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS 
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/9...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT 
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IN FACT THE CENTER MIGHT EVEN BE FURTHER 
WEST THAN INDICATED HERE.  MANUEL IS MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A 
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND GUIDANCE IS IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE 
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO 
WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.  SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE AVN AND 
LBAR...RESPOND TO THIS WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK LATE IN THE 
PERIOD...WHILE THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS TAKE A WEAKENING SYSTEM 
MORE TO THE WEST.  GIVEN THAT THE SSTS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND THE 
SHEAR INCREASING SHARPLY BY 48 HOURS...I SUSPECT THE LATTER SCENARIO 
IS THE MORE LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT AT 72 HOURS...WHERE IT IS ADJUSTED TO THE 
LEFT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 17.8N 117.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 18.6N 118.4W    50 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 19.8N 119.9W    55 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.9N 121.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     18/0600Z 22.0N 122.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     19/0600Z 24.0N 124.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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