[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES MANUEL IS BECOMING BETTER 
ORGANIZED WITH A SMALL CDO-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE CENTER....ALTHOUGH 
THE CIRCULATION STILL APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED SW TO NE. DVORAK 
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER 
MANUEL AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...THEREFORE SOME ADDITIONAL 
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE 
WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN 24 TO 36 
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...MANUEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER  
WATERS AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/07. THE TRACK FORECAST 
PHILOSOPHY IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED IN THAT THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE 
NEAR BAJA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ALONG 130W SHOULD 
INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS 
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS THROUGH 36 
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH 
THE NOGAPS THE LEFTMOST OUTLIER...WHILE THE AVN AND BAMS ACCELERATE 
MANUEL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS 
JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. 
THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GUNA ENSEMBLE OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS 
AND AVN TRACKS.     

FORECASTER PASCH/COBB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 17.3N 116.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N 117.2W    50 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 18.9N 118.6W    55 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.3N 121.3W    50 KTS
72HR VT     19/0000Z 24.0N 123.0W    40 KTS
 
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